Weekly Economic Update November 28, 2022
In this week’s recap: Fed talks turkey on lower rates, boosting markets.
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Growing optimism that the Fed may be ready to ease future interest rate hikes sent stocks higher in a quiet trading week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.78%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 1.53%. The Nasdaq Composite index improved 0.72% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.33%.1,2,3
In light holiday-week trading, stocks rallied as investors grew more hopeful of a slowdown in a future rate hike. The release of the minutes from the early November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) fed investors' optimism. Fed officials suggested such easing may be coming soon.
Investor sentiment was also lifted by unexpectedly strong retailer earnings, upside surprises in new economic data, and a better-than-expected consumer sentiment reading. Investors looked past the continuing Covid-related challenges that have stymied China's economic recovery and its attendant implications for global growth.
EASING IN THE OFFING?
The Fed meeting minutes, released before the Thanksgiving holiday, showed that most Fed officials felt a slowing in interest rate increases would be appropriate. The minutes also suggested that such a deceleration in rate hikes may begin with December's meeting with a 50 basis point hike rather than a fifth consecutive boost of 75 basis points.4
The primary reasons for slowing the pace of rate hikes were the growing risk that the Fed may increase rates beyond what was required to reduce inflation to its two percent target and signs that inflation pressures were easing.5
Tip of the Week
Set aside a half-hour each month to organize your financial documents. It makes sense all year, and you will be prepared once tax season arrives.
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Thursday: Jobless Claims. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing.
Friday: Employment Situation.
Source: Econoday, November 25, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday: Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Intuit, Inc. (INTU), CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Wednesday: Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Dollar General Corporation (DG), The Kroger Co. (KR).
Source: Zacks, November 25, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
The Weekly Riddle
A lone pine tree stands on a cliff. The wind is blowing from the east through the mountains. Which way do the tree’s leaves blow?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: It has no crown, yet when the chips are down it is more powerful than a king or queen. What is it?
ANSWER: An ace in a deck of cards.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
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1. The Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2022
5. The Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2022