Weekly Economic Update September 12, 2022
In this week’s recap: Markets upbeat, despite gloomy inflation talk.
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
In a holiday-shortened week of trading, stocks posted healthy gains despite more tough talk on monetary policy from Fed officials.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 3.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 4.14% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.26%.1,2,3
Stocks fell coming off the Labor Day weekend, dragged down by news that Russia was cutting off natural gas supplies to its European customers. Stocks also were under pressure due to a surprisingly strong report on business conditions, which heightened fears of continued Fed hawkishness.
Sentiment quickly improved as bond yields turned lower and oil prices fell. Investors reacted positively to comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated the Fed’s commitment to quashing inflation while acknowledging the risks of going too far. Stocks added to their gains on Thursday as the market digested another speech from Fed Chair Powell and a 0.75% hike by the European Central Bank. The markets surged on Friday amid little news, ending a positive week on an upbeat note.
NO INFLATION WALK BACK
In his first public comments since his speech at Jackson Hole that sent markets into a tailspin, Fed Chair Powell did not seek to soften the edges of the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation. In an interview on Thursday, Powell reaffirmed the need for sustained and robust actions to bring down inflation. He emphasized that it was critical that “the longer inflation remains well above target, the greater the risk the public does begin to see higher inflation as the norm, and that has the capacity to really raise the costs of getting inflation down.”4
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to meet on September 20-21, these comments may indicate that market expectations of a rate hike of 0.75% this month align with the Fed’s plans.
Tip of the Week
Think about making a household budget using an online spreadsheet. You can easily find or create one on the Web for free; some even have built-in calculators.
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI).
Thursday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Jobless Claims.
Friday: Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Econoday, September 9, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Monday: Oracle Corporation (ORCL).
Source: Zacks, September 9, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
The Weekly Riddle
Gerald Ford was our 38th President, but he was actually the 37th man to take the job. Why was that?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: A sudden noise startles a gopher, an owl, and a skunk at the edge of a forest. The owl flies off and the gopher retreats into his burrow, but the skunk runs for the trees. How far can that skunk run into the forest?
ANSWER: Halfway; after it gets halfway into the forest, it is running out of the forest.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
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1. The Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, September 8, 2022
5. CNBC, September 2, 2022
6. CNBC, September 2, 2022